Sea

© Vytautas Petrikas photo

Spausdinti   Supplement to article

Today marks seven years since the last major hurricane devastated Lithuania. Scientists claim from their experience that after January, the probability of hurricanes is fading.

The River Dane flooded the old town

The hurricane Ervinas reached Lithuania on 9 January, 2005. Its speed in the coastal areas reached 34 m/s. It devastated the seaside forests and Palanga beach dunes were washed away. The hurricane Ervinas had the biggest hit on Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands. In these countries, 134 people were either dead or went missing. According to both, the wind speed and the damage caused, the hurricane Ervinas is considered to be among the three major disasters in the 20^th century Lithuanian history. During the hurricane, the water levels rose by 154 centimeters. The River Dane flooded part of the old town.

Even a more powerful hurricane hit Lithuania on 4 December, 1999. Then, the so-called hurricane Anatolijus reached the speed of 40 m/s. The water level rose by 165 centimeters. Foresters could say that a larger storm hit Lithuania in 2005. Back then, the hurricane Ervinas devastated 600 thousand cubic meters of timber. Anatolijus managed to devastate 350 thousand cubic meters of timber.

However, the major disaster struck Lithuania on 17 October, 1967. The hurricane (without a name) devastated about 3 million cubic meters of timber in the region of Zemaitija. Forester of Kretinga Antanas Baranauskas remembers that the hurricane of 1967 managed to destroy whole forest blocks. The same hurricane has devastated the city of Klaipeda. The water level rose by 186 centimeters, the biggest in the history of Lithuania. Some of the local inhabitants remember that the water from the River Dane was everywhere in the old town.

Reduced threats

This year, we have also managed to live through the hurricane threat. According to the multi-annual observations, the biggest winds hit until the New Year. However, there were exceptional cases when strong winds hit in February or March. Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service Klaipeda Department Head Lionginas Pakstys claimed that according to his years of experience, it is impossible to track any patterns in which strong winds appear. This year is special because the winter is warm. Therefore, it is more likely that there may be strong winds in the near future. So far, at least until mid-January, neither temperature changes nor unpredictable winds are forecasted. At the end of January, the weather should cool up to -20 degrees. The cold weather detains hurricane penetration. Hurricane winds usually occur when the warm Atlantic and cold continental air from the Arctic mixes. When the Atlantic currents get cooler, then the probability of strong winds decreases.

Although this year probably will not see hurricanes, the long-term forecasts are not too bright. While climate is getting warmer, the probability of hurricanes, with the speed greater than 20 m/s, is increasing. According to Mr. Pakstys, there are even chances to have a hurricane in summertime. The most severe winds are that of the western, southwestern and the northeast winds.